Digital twins and zoning: what the Esri conference means for London planning

A planner who attended the 2024 Esri User Conference in San Diego has published a detailed account of how digital twins, ArcGIS Urban and ArcGIS CityEngine are being presented as the next generation of GIS tools for planning. The report, written by Christine McLaren and published by Planetizen, offers a practitioner’s view of the capabilities, costs and limitations of these systems — and raises questions that are directly relevant to London boroughs, the Greater London Authority and Transport for London as they expand their use of spatial data.

The conference drew 20,000 GIS professionals. Two Esri products dominated the planning sessions: ArcGIS Urban, an online application, and ArcGIS CityEngine, a desktop application. Both can produce three-dimensional maps of towns and cities, but they answer different questions. CityEngine focuses on visualisation — what will it look like? ArcGIS Urban is described as a planning platform that can test whether a development is feasible under existing zoning, model past, present and future scenarios, and show where housing could realistically fit.

Por que importa

For London, where every borough maintains its own local plan and the GLA applies the London Plan and the Housing Strategy, the ability to test zoning scenarios before they become policy is not a distant concept. The report cites two case studies that illustrate how the tools have been used in practice.

Key facts

What the tools do
ArcGIS Urban works with parcel data and zoning information. The planner who attended the conference noted that it can map where housing could realistically be built and model scenarios based on existing zoning codes and future amendments. It is not primarily a visualisation tool; it is a platform for testing planning rules. CityEngine, by contrast, is better suited for architects and designers producing detailed renderings for clients.

Contexto

The Nottingham case study is particularly relevant for UK readers. Nottingham City Council wanted to make development review faster, more coordinated and more transparent. The city faced difficulty communicating its vision, slow and uncertain development decisions, unclear understanding of site constraints and capacity, and time-consuming initial project reviews. By building a digital twin, planners, developers and stakeholders gained a shared view of proposed development. The city reported a 2:1 return on investment over a ten-year period.

Cost and capacity barriers
The report does not shy away from the practical barriers. A Professional user type is required for CityEngine and a Professional Plus user type for ArcGIS Urban. The price difference between these tiers and a Basic user type is significant. For small towns and organisations with limited GIS staff, the cost may be hard to justify if the tools are used only for scenario testing. The author suggests that a version available to Basic users could help smaller organisations trial the services before committing to a more expensive subscription.

Beyond the licence cost, a digital twin requires active management. It is not a static model; it must be updated and maintained. That means dedicated staff time, which is a real constraint for boroughs where GIS teams are already stretched. The report warns that if advanced software remains at a higher price point, wealthier districts will be better placed to use it, potentially widening the gap in planning capacity and data quality between well-resourced and under-resourced authorities.

Public engagement and transparency
One of the more practical sections of the report concerns public engagement. The conference emphasised that digital twins should not be used only for internal systems. A three-dimensional environment allows residents to see what a proposed development would look like on the ground, which can build trust and raise the quality of consultation. For London, where large-scale regeneration projects, tall buildings and estate redevelopments routinely generate strong public interest, a shared visual model could reduce the friction that comes from abstract descriptions and two-dimensional plans.

What this means for London
London boroughs already use GIS for a range of planning functions, from maintaining the brownfield land register to mapping conservation areas and flood risk zones. The GLA publishes the London Development Database and the London Datastore. TfL uses spatial data for transport modelling and street design. The question raised by the conference report is whether local authorities can afford the upgrade to the Professional Plus tier and the staff time to maintain a live digital twin.

The Nottingham example shows that the investment can pay for itself over a decade, but the upfront cost and the need for a dedicated GIS officer may be harder to absorb in a period of constrained local government budgets. The report also notes that the tools require parcel data and zoning information to get started, both of which London boroughs hold, but the quality and completeness of that data varies.

Source: Planetizen, “The future of GIS, explored” by Christine McLaren, 4 September 2024. https://www.planetizen.com/features/138357-future-gis-explored